Less than three weeks into his second term in office, U.S. President Donald Trump has already begun what he pledged would be "the largest deportation program in American history." (Nikkei montage/Source photos by Reuters)
Asian immigrants in U.S. cower in shadow of Trump deportation drive
An estimated 1.7m Asians lived in U.S. without authorization in 2022, up a third from 2016
NEW YORK -- News of a U.S. military aircraft embarking on a long-haul flight from Texas to India threw a scare into Samuel this week. The plane was transporting people like him -- Indian nationals illegally residing in the United States.
The 42-year-old, who has lived in the U.S. since 2013, said he fell victim to an immigration scam that resulted in his current illegal status. Since then he has married Andrea, a U.S. citizen, and together they own a catering business in California, where he runs daily operations.
However, he remains without permanent legal status as President Donald Trump, back in the White House for less than three weeks, begins to carry out what he pledged would be "the largest deportation program in American history."
"I am always a positive person, but inside I'm scared," Samuel, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to his status, told Nikkei Asia. "I want to be happy, but this is out of my control."
As of 2022, the last year for which data is available, roughly 11 million of the 46.2 million immigrants in the United States lacked permanent legal status, according to Pew Research Center estimates. Among those facing heightened prospects of being deported, 1.7 million are from Asia -- up nearly a third from 2016, when Trump first won office.
An estimated 725,000 Indians make up the third-largest group of unauthorized immigrants after Mexicans and Salvadorans, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. Those from China totaled 375,000, while there were 130,000 from the Philippines, the data shows.
It remains unclear exactly how many of their nationals these three Asian countries might be prepared to welcome back. That matter is likely to be discussed when Trump makes his expected call with Chinese President Xi Jinping and when Indian leader Narendra Modi takes up Trump's invitation to the White House next week. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has pledged to discuss immigration when he meets Trump, without saying when that might be.
The deportation of Indian nationals to their home country comes as Trump's second term in office gets underway with a wide crackdown on immigration. While the early days of his new administration have become known for radical about-turns on policy initiatives, there's little to suggest Trump's determination to deport unauthorized residents will diminish.
Trump was quick to act on his campaign pledge to prioritize deportations, signing 10 executive orders on immigration on his first day in office. One of these expanded the enforcement powers of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials, allowing them to issue removal notices.
The number of pending deportation cases had increased to 3.7 million by the end of 2024, according to Vera, a nonprofit focused on criminal justice reform. Among these cases, 2.5 million defendants were navigating their deportation proceedings without a lawyer, Vera said.
Deporting large numbers of migrants would greatly impact America's workforce, experts say, especially in sectors such as construction, agriculture and the hospitality industry. The Center for Migration Studies estimates about 1.5 million of the unauthorized immigrant population work in construction, 1 million in restaurants and roughly 320,000 on farms.
The United States has long been a destination for many seeking brighter futures. Three of the four largest immigrant groups in the United States are from Asia, with most arrivals seeking better economic and educational opportunities. The number of Indian, Chinese and Philippine migrants has grown throughout the past few years. There are now more than 7 million of them in the U.S.
Immigrants contribute to the nation's economic growth as well as federal and state tax coffers. But the current anti-immigration sentiment will impact the United States' appeal as an emigration destination and could ultimately hurt growth, analysts say.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has turned to the military for assistance to implement his agenda, with thousands of immigrants already deported on flights to India, Guatemala, Peru and Honduras. After being hit with a flurry of tariff threats from Trump, Colombia said it would accept without restrictions any of its nationals who entered the U.S. illegally.
The foreign ministries of China and India said in late January their countries would take in repatriates as long as their nationalities and documents are verified, without sharing details of how many deportees they'll accept. Early public reactions in India to the first deportation flight were broadly negative, with social media commentators lamenting that the deportees were obliged to make the lengthy journey in handcuffs and shackles.
ICE did not respond to Nikkei Asia's requests for comment.
The new drive comes on top of a crackdown by Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden. According to ICE, the organization in its fiscal year through September 2024 removed more than 270,000 illegal residents, 90% more than the previous year and more than in any year of Trump's first term. ICE numbers show more than 500 Chinese citizens and 1,500 Indians were removed in the past fiscal year.
Wherever Indian immigrant Samuel goes, he carries copies of his documents, including his marriage certificate and a government notice approving the relationship.
"Every day can be an anxiety-laden moment," Samuel's attorney Glen Raj said. "There is a dangerous sense of desperation of doing some sort of decision that may be against their own interest."
The powers Trump has bestowed on ICE allow officials to bypass regular immigration law and speed up deportations of anyone with a removal order, regardless of whether they are considered a priority. Removal notices were previously issued only through immigration courts.
In late January, Trump signed into law the bipartisan Laken Riley Act, which requires the detention of unauthorized immigrants accused of theft or violent crimes such as assaulting a police officer. Laken Riley has a provision that greatly enhances powers to block the issuing of U.S. visas to citizens of countries deemed recalcitrant -- or uncooperative -- by the new administration.
Since Trump took office on Jan. 20, the number of immigrants arrested each day has averaged around 1,000, according to figures published by ICE on social media platform X. In nine days, the office said it had arrested more than 7,400 people through operations in cities like Chicago and New York. Authorities have shared very few details of the arrests, which have alarmed Asian immigrants and Asian American groups.
Chan, a 36-year-old from China, is among the fearful.
He is one of tens of thousands of Chinese nationals who have illegally crossed the Mexican border into the U.S. over the past several years and is currently seeking asylum, fearing political persecution back home.
He said he has spent significantly less time outside of his home since Trump came into office. "I hide at home and don't open the door to strangers," he told Nikkei Asia. "If I see the police nearby, I try and stay away from them."
U.S. Customs and Border Protection said the number of Chinese nationals arriving without authorization at the U.S.-Mexico border rocketed to 24,300 in fiscal 2023 from approximately 2,200 a year earlier. Many, like Chen, are still waiting for an immigration judge to determine their status.
His pending asylum status is not officially within the scope of ICE arrests. But Chan faces the risk of something called a "collateral arrest." Banned by the Biden administration, such arrests now are "to be expected," according to Trump's newly installed border czar, Tom Homan.
"I just don't feel safe," Chan said. "I am very anxious. On one hand, there's day-to-day financial hardships, on the other I could be taken away. The path to secure my future will be very difficult."
Kathleen Bush-Joseph at the Migration Policy Institute said stricter immigration policies and a vocal public campaign against immigrants without permanent legal status have heightened concerns.
"People are already very fearful," she said. "I think on a community level, absolutely, that affects how people live and work and go about their days."
Lawyers who help undocumented immigrants said there has been a spike of inquiries on who is subject to deportation.
Raj, Indian immigrant Samuel's lawyer, said there is a backlog of clients waiting to have their cases heard by an immigration judge who can grant them asylum, and allow them to work and live legally in the United States.
Concerns have also been raised by immigration advocacy groups that resources and manpower could be reallocated away from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), the agency that processes asylum applications, and toward ICE. The administration has signaled its intent to invest more in the removal of immigrants after it authorized the expansion of a migrant detention facility in Guantanamo Bay that would hold 30,000 people.
Much of Trump's public campaign has been focused on unauthorized immigrants, but the administration has also made moves to roll back protections for immigrants with legal permission to work.
Late in January Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said her department will end an 18-month extension for one of two temporary immigration programs for Venezuelans, making them vulnerable to being sent back to their country. The Temporary Protected Status (TPS) gives work permits and removal protections to migrants from nations beset by war, environmental disaster or situations that make it dangerous for them to return.
The latest move will impact 350,000 Venezuelans, more than half of the migrants in the program. While there have been no further cuts for other nationals, the TPS program currently extends to nearly 15,000 people from Nepal.
The rollback of these programs -- as well as a controversial executive attempt to end birthright citizenship despite it being enshrined in the U.S. Constitution -- has shaken other immigrant communities that are at risk of political persecution if they are deported back to where they came from. These include nearly 4,000 Hong Kongers who are on the Deferred Enforced Departure program (DED), which gives them the right to live and work in the U.S. for a limited time.
In its last days, the Biden administration granted a 24-month extension to the DED, but those in the program worry the new administration could end it, leaving them at risk of returning to a Hong Kong that has instituted draconian national security legislation to further crackdown on freedom and human rights.
Experts say that the immigration system does need to be fixed to lessen the burden on public resources and to cut red tape for those looking to emigrate to the U.S.
Bush-Joseph at the Migration Policy Institute said administrations past and present have used executive actions as temporary solutions.
"But these are not systemwide fixes," she said, adding that Congress needs to make a legislative push to provide more resources. "It's not clear yet whether Congress will attempt to undertake a real update of the system and bring it into the 21st century. And I think that unless and until that happens, there could continue to be some of these systemwide challenges."
For now, immigrants like undocumented Indian Samuel in California can't pin their hopes on any legislative changes to avoid being deported.
"I don't have any other options, we [can't] decide anything," he said. "I don't want to leave Andrea alone. Her parents are sick, I'm the person who should be taking care of her. It's very hard to think about the future."